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Post Info TOPIC: My Trading results


MP 06 Life Member

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Posts: 876
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My Trading results
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Hi All

To give you a bit of back ground, I got into Dirk's program around June 2006. I went through the initial learning stage, and began trading a live account in around October or November 2006.

At that stage i pretty quickly learnt the emotional difference between trading a demo and trading a live account.

Then around Jan 2007 i got involved with a very beautiful girl. Needless to say i did not read a DB or put any effort into trading what so ever for about 9 months. I really was not taking things seriously or trying to learn anything, (i was too busy enjoying myself).

I did my best to get back into trading in August 2007, but i was still not putting "real" effort into it and i was living / trading in a bit of a dream world.

The market gave me a massive wake up call in August 2007 as the subprime crisis it the wires for the first time. I spent the rest of August and the first half of September taking in and emotionally and mentally considering what the market had recently taught me and what i needed to do to move forward.

Also at this time it was getting to the stage where i could see life was asking me to make the choice between keeping this girl friend or moving onward with my life, (she got booted pretty quickly, she was mental and had no concept of the future or responsiblity). It wasn't pleasant and made me sad but it had to happen.

Then a month or two later Dirk opened the forum. This really helped me, you can see in Nov 2007, i started trading multiple pairs, which i think is brilliant.

I had a bit of a hiccup in December 2007, when a string of US data ending in stronger CPI resulted in a half grid adjustment in the EURUSD and other pairs. That was also a pretty big learning expereince as to how it actually effects your bottom line closing lots out for big % losses.

I do not think the results in the spread sheet i have attached are a real, true reflection of what when on with my account as it does not show how much drawdown i was carrying at the worst times, in Aug / Sept 2007 my account was $8,500, at the end of January it was $13,500.

I would call that more than 50% in four months. But looking at the spread sheet of the trades i actually booked, i can see how the lots i closed out for loss in December although helping me mentally did not do the account any good. I really am going to be stronger when it comes to half grid adjustments in future.

I am also doing my best to use different lot sizes in different grid Quodrants, you can see my attempt at this in January, i must remember to continue with this going forward.

(Just excuse the dates you see in the spread sheet, they are just the value dates and the dates the positions were rolled over, and not the dates i actually opened and closed the positions. If you have read Dirk's material you will know what that means).

**** Right Click "View Image" and select "Save Target As" ****

-- Edited by blindfold at 10:26, 2008-02-05

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Life's a lottery, be lucky !  / "Nuke the site from orbit, its the only way to be sure" Ripley .......... and, shoot from the hip



MP 06 Life Member

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Posts: 876
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I do not really think i need to add Feb 2008 results as i think everyone on the forum knows what has happend in Feb 2008.

But i will add it all the same.

I think looking at my results, you do not see many big "insurance" type trades because i am some one who opens and closes again at the same level, if i feel that way inclined, or just closes and leave them closed if i feel that way too.

I think i tend to think more in terms of "is the leverage correct for the current level and environment?", rather than how much i make off each trade. And i can't bear to see a 200 pip winner turn into a 10 pip token.

That said.................... i do think a bit of a problem with my results is i am too scared to use even slightly high leverage, (or i do not have the confidence to use slightly higher leverage). For most of the last part of Feb i was 1.5:1 to 3:1 short USD as it was making "record" lows against the other pairs. That whole expect a rise leverage high, expect a fall leverage small idea i have........... I think at some stage, i must just really leverage high next time i expect a rise.

Although i was leveraged 7:1 early to mid after ECB, BoE, Northern Rock shows when the pairs were low Q1. And i got that 7:1 right on the bottom cos i was actually long USD in early Feb on the whole "ECB / BoE are behind the curve" story.

My account was $13,500 end of Jan, end of Feb it is now $14,900...... It also nearly broke the historic 15000 figure in Feb, (but not quite), ........ If it hits $20,000 by year end i will be a very happy person.

And....... be sure i am pooping in my pants about giving this money back to the market, (healthy, but not clean).blankstare


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Life's a lottery, be lucky !  / "Nuke the site from orbit, its the only way to be sure" Ripley .......... and, shoot from the hip



MP 06 Life Member

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Posts: 876
Date:
Alcohol induses honesty
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I wanted to post this in Dirk Daily Briefing thread, but i know he would not appreciate it, and i would not be suprised if he doesn't delete this whole post because he does not like it when i get drunk and post on his forum, but............

From what i can see by the number of views on his "Daily Briefings" thread, (the thread he updates everyday for all his students to read), is less than 50 people read Dirk's briefing today.

All i can say is............ We are part of a very exclusive, world wide club!

You know what! ...... If you can't even read a book, you don't deserve to understand the what money is. I am just very frustateted with my friends who can't read.

And....... Hi to all the very exclusive, intelligent, lucky people who know.

It is a very funny world!



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Life's a lottery, be lucky !  / "Nuke the site from orbit, its the only way to be sure" Ripley .......... and, shoot from the hip



MP Live Trader

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i kind of agree!
the first thing i do after Breakfast is read the briefing!
i think i could simply not go through my day not knowing what Dirk/Loonie/Fish thinks might happen...

then I try to figure out a way about why he though what he did, and why i though the same or diferently as he did.

then after a hard half hour -to- 1 hour thinking pad, i go off to work, and try to peace my mind thinking: "it all depends on randomness, there is nothing i can do exept think better to get money out of randomness somewhere alond the road."

i guess one has to be accuainted with Dirk's work to really appreciate his thoughs on the matter... i have followed his briefings for a looooooong time now, and i have learned to appreciate them, to the point where i can no longer go through my day without them, even though some times i tend to think diferently (and that has caused me a lot of pain).




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Big Makulu

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Posts: 5525
Date:
February 2008 Trading results
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It is a fact and a part of our success that we view the market as existing in three stages (like most other people), it goes UP, DOWN and SIDEWAYS.  However that is where things between us and others part ways.

We also see it as:

1.  It goes in the one direction.
2.  It doesn't really go against the one direction.
3.  It goes against the one direction.

We also know:

If 1 - we make honey
If 2 - we make money
If 3 - we plan how to make money later and make sure we don't lose more than what we have made during the other stages.

The fact of matter is if you look at February 2008 it is not to say that everyone out there were making money.  If you include January and December it become even more so.  (It is also true that we had more than one casualty amongst ourselves.)

Have a look at the attached file, from Nov 07 to March 08.  Isn't that just a beautiful grid?  Personifying everything we say, even to the point where we made adjustments to a 500 point EURUSD grid (which wasn't placed in hindsight)

But the proof of the pudding is in the eating and I suppose it is all good and well if I have made a pip here and there:

Nov 07 - about 1600 (steady mark-to-market equity)
Dec 07 - about 450 plus a healthy improvement in Mark-to-market equity
Jan 08 - about 1100 plus further improvement in Mark-to-market equity
Feb 08 - about 2800 plus slight improvement in Mark-to-market equity

But did my clients make money?  I flipped through a few accounts the other day and this is what I saw (for February):

Before I give this, in the interest of transparency let me mention that February also saw two accounts devastated, one other with about 30% losses and closed. In all three cases the rot started a few months ago shortly after they went live, which in two cases were prematurely if you ask me. (I will use at least two of them at some point to show what the dangers are if you learn about the 4x1 system and then go off on some route that you will never catch me on).  One was a long time coming basically due to a continuous over leveraged hedge play in funny currency pairs.  One was due to over trading and misapplication of cost averaging. The other one had nothing to do with what I teach and I still try to see the link between the person's goals and what transpired in his account. All were all over the show in currencies traded. Too high leverage was the common denominator.

For those that reasonably stuck to the basics this is how it turned out. 
37%
16%
12%
8%
14%
4%
20%
2% (not very active)
3.5%
29% (me, S-I-T account I use in MP)
7.5% (my managed accounts)
19%
11.5%
11.85% - (the success story mentioned below under "Confessions")
14%
14%
21%
21%
6%
22%
13.5%
9%
33%


With a post like this there must probably be ten pages of disclaimers.

The above is a selection of the accounts I have access to and does not include accounts of clients who trade at other brokers (too many).

These returns are by approximation, but not far off the mark (within 1%).  Not all accounts made new equity highs because I did include a few that made significant dents in previous (Dec / January) drawdown:

When one look at returns with an one directional, cost averaging, multiple entry approach to appreciate what is going on you have to strike a balance between the positions you close out and the open position (mark-to-market) drawdown. 

I did not include all accounts.  I did not include all accounts that made money.  It is not the point of this post to show people that didn't make money in this one month.  There were, I have mentioned the worst cases.  It is not to say that the people mentioned here will repeat this feat.  Some will, some won't.  Some may do better in moths to come, some may blow up.

All the accounts included are real money accounts, traded by real people who are following or have done my mentoring programme.  Most of the traders here are part timers and in the first one or two years of live trading, some are longer in the game.

You can take this from this post: if the market goes in the one direction you back you are likely to have positive returns at pretty low risk if you follow the 4x1 strategy and I guess some will add, it will help if you follow my daily briefings also.

With starting dates for my mentoring programme now in January and July and we are in a zone too far from January and to early for July I have opened up enrolments on a "Hybrid" programme.  Have a look below at "Join DrForex Mentor programme here" if you are interested.  If you can't access it, you must register as a member and will you permissions be set to access it.






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MP 06 Life Member

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Posts: 876
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RE: My Trading results
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March 2008 as i am sure everyone knows was ........ bloody hetic. I am sure this is what people refer to when they use the term nose bleed. Everything was pushing the extremes and there was a lot of talk of "true value" and "too much speculation in price current price levels".

We saw the Bear Sterns story and the ultra hawk Trichet, and the troubles with the UK economy.

It is funny that the only people i saw on TV saying sterling is unvalued were english people.

I thought i did pretty well considering the conditions. On the 26th of March i was pretty much 7% up for the month, on real account value, including drawdown on open positions. But then on the last weekend of the month after the USD rallied near on 400 pips i see a smart english guy on Bloomberg money weekend saying Sterling is very much undervalued and Eur is very much over valued, (in-light of recent 6 - 12 month price moves and the fact the EUR is not the Duetsche Mark. Italy, Spain, Ireland have problems).

So stupidly i sell the bottom on Sunday night........ and thanks to Trichet and Mervin on the last Tuesday of the month EUR sees the biggest two day gain in 12 years or something...... And then...........

Because i am so stupid!!! i do not use the trading software right and hedges i placed on Wednesday get rounded up and closed for the loss, when i was wanting to hold them open.

So i ended up with only 4% profit and a fair bit of open drawdown, (probably about 1% under what the account value was at the end of last month).


I think that Bloomberg money weekend show is just repeats of what they have shown during the week, (got to be careful making decisions on that).

Also i think i have been putting a lot less effort in to trading in the last month or so which is probably evident in the results. I have had a holiday and now i am going to get back into it; I am not into messing about!



And one last thing i am thinking is........ We are going to get the summer doldrums just now and the price action will not be the same as the price action over the winter, so the approach is probably going to change slightly, (but it is still another month before proper summer time).

-- Edited by blindfold at 11:59, 2008-03-29

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Life's a lottery, be lucky !  / "Nuke the site from orbit, its the only way to be sure" Ripley .......... and, shoot from the hip



MP 06 Life Member

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Posts: 876
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This month the trading went like...........

I did really well up until after Monday after the G7, (Monday 14th April). I caught loads of EURUSD strenght over the ECB / BoE on the 10th of April, (betting on the high European inflation and BoE cutting).

And then on Sunday night 13th April. I was doing so well again betting on the G7 not saying too much regarding USD weakness. This was really paying off on Sunday night as i had opened some long USD postions. But then...... come monday morning they were all in the red and people were saying the G7 actually said nothing.

So i dumped them towards the end of the week ending friday 18th, which saw very hot EUR inflation and EUR better than expected trade balance take EURUSD once again above 1.6000. On that Friday i was betting on weaker USD exiting homes sales coming in on Tuesday and making more USD weakness, (which it did).

And then, luckily toward the end of the 3rd week i leverage very low on short USD expecting stronger existing homes sales.

As i re-call pretty much all the way through April companies were coming out with 1st quarter earnings pretty much better than expected across the board and this really gave the DOW a lift and pushed the 2-year note down, (yeild up). As i re-call largerly due to this people now predicting the coming of the end on the Fed cutting cycle. I think it was largely due to this the USD strenghtend from wednesday to wednesday leading up to the FOMC.

FOMC i think pretty much resulted in a buy the rumour sell the fact, as i would say Fed did what the market anticipated and immediately after that the market began to anticipate the next lot of figures out the US, (employment and housing), which probably arent going to be pretty for a while.



There were two main lessons i learnt this month, (chatting to Shane on this forum was quite educational for me, even if he was a little agressive).

Firstly...... after the G7 I was 67% up for the year! I thought i was such a hot shot trader i could not lose. I was at some stage after the G7 going for 5:1 leverage as the toe in!! (Just because i was so good at trading). Needless to say that was never going to work and i had no problem reducing the leverage once i saw the light of day. This happend around the same time i booked an 8% loss on short AUDUSD on the predicted commodities slow down. The combination of these two actions was quite humbling for me and really made me think of what is important.


In this game it is better to try and stay alive than to try and make money.


Secondly ............... THE BIG LESSON for this month, (something i have realised after chatting to Shane and seeing what went on over FOMC and many other occasions).


If I have an idea or opinion regarding where the market will go and why, it is fair to say there are probably several million other people who have already thought what i am thinking and acted on it. Hence alot of what i am thinking is already discounted in the price, and as Shane put it......... "This risk reward ratio is not so good".


Note to self........ Remember next time you think of something, that you are not so clever as to be the first person who ever thought of it, in fact you generally pretty slow on the up take. Make sure you look to see how much of the market is already on the band wagon. Try and go for trades with better risk reward ratio and if you feel compelled to enter into already discounted situations make sure you use very low leverage as there is a good chance you will end up holding those postions in loss for a while.


Generally just have a bit more respect for the market and do not start thinking you are cleverer that it is.


Better than expected US first quarter earnings, Treausries being sold, US stocks breaking higher out so a 4-5 month channel, oil overshooting high european inflation but slowing growth, the UK + US housing markets in trouble, (liquidity actions), and big drops in NFP seemed to highlight April.


Going forward ....... Try and have a bit more respect for the market and in turn be a bit more clever



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Life's a lottery, be lucky !  / "Nuke the site from orbit, its the only way to be sure" Ripley .......... and, shoot from the hip

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