The past week, (3rd March - 7th March 2008), and the first few days of this week have been utter madness. I am getting a better understanding of the term "nose bleed"!
Times like these it is better for me to concentrate on other areas on my life aside from trading, (sit it out with low leverage and wait until i better understand whats happening).
But i must say i am impressed with Dirk's insights and cool head. I would bet he has seen this type of action before. Still i do not like to gamble too much on the market unless i personnally do understand it.
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Life's a lottery, be lucky ! / "Nuke the site from orbit, its the only way to be sure" Ripley .......... and, shoot from the hip
That is a truism. Which leads me to think, (and seems to blend with the reality that its the "Big Players" that move the markets), why study fundamentals at all? The prices (markets) have already digested everything that is on the horizon. Banks, hedge funds, etc. hire teams of analyists working 24-7 with rocket-science software programs modeling risks and price direction. You know they know whats going on, with the exception of a few black swans here and there.
The noise is ringing loud in my ears. I'm not jumping ship or anything, but it sure makes me want to try a little technical trading on longer term charts. Buy the rumor, sell the fact would already be there.
blindfold wrote:
And another epiphany.........
The news thats comeing out tomorrow is already priced in the market.
You are better off betting on the news come out next week.
Yeah pipme ....... All of that said, i think we should not try and fool ourselves that we are any good at predicting the future, no matter what methods we use.
Also ............. Hey that long AUDUSD carry trade is good !!!
All it has to do is range and you make a couple of pips a day for nothing!
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Life's a lottery, be lucky ! / "Nuke the site from orbit, its the only way to be sure" Ripley .......... and, shoot from the hip
USD is becoming the new carry funding currency. It seems weird to me when people keep talking about the "carry trade coming back" and then site USD/JPY rising as evidence. Maybe last September this makes sense, but now? USD is, at best, on hold, possibly lowering lots a bit more if things really go to hell. JPY is going to raise rates in the future. How can USD/JPY rising be evidence of the carry trade coming back? Thats like saying CHF/JPY or CAD/USD rising is evidence of the carry trade coming back.
Anyway, Ive been saying all along, my two favorite trades are long AUD/USD and long AUD/CAD. Buy on the dips. I just find any reason AUD shouldnt be at parity with both. There will be dips on the way of course, but you get the carry while you are waiting!
