DAYFOREX

DeanR · Class of Life (2007)

ZUNISMYST: The Man, The Myth, The Legend

blindfold · MP 06 Life Member

I saw in that trader of the year fxstreet competion he won on fxstreet he was at 40% drawdown at one point.

One things for sure, the man can handle pain!

I went throught all his results on that fxstreet competion and i just couldn't work out what he is doing or thinking..... So i am very interested in the next post.

Simon

northwoods · MP Class of Jan 2008

Just came across this great thread...anxious for it to continue.

Dean, I can hand you tools or run to the hardware store to help you get the faucet fixed faster...just tell me what you need...

zunismyst · Independent Trader

Correction here! - De-Mystifying Any Accumulation Of Dazzling Clichés And No Legend In Sight Yet

zunismyst · Independent Trader

RE: ZUNISMYST: The Man, The Myth, The Legend

blindfold · MP 06 Life Member

Favorite car: Volkswagen Fahrvergnugen >Golf

Zunimyst .......... I have got three words for you my friend.....

G-T-I

Also ........ I am more of a 10 - 20% drawdown man myself ............ I am clearly not as well endowded as you.

Just a question ......... what leverage are you at with 35% drawdown?

If you have built the leverage up to +10:1 at that stage, i would be too scared a 300 - 400 pip black swan could come and take the other 65%.

You thoughts and comments as very much appreciated.

Thanks

Simon
-- Edited by blindfold at 16:17, 2008-05-13

-- Edited by blindfold at 16:21, 2008-05-13

zunismyst · Independent Trader

Right, I have got one.

blindfold · MP 06 Life Member

What does it do the quarter mile in?

Also please see the other question about your leverage and drawdown above.

Thanks

Simon

DeanR · Class of Life (2007)

Sorry it took me so long to get back to this post. The plumbing under my sink sprung a leak so I asked my neighbors 25 year old wife to help me. (her husband was on a business trip and my wife was out shopping) It got kind of tight under there and our clothes got wet and well..........

Anyways, This is getting confusing. Dirk says you use high leverage. You say you don't. Now there seems to be a misunderstanding of what leverage is.

So Hypothetically we'll say that Zunismyst has a $100,000 account

What is your leverage meaning (How much is 1 pip to you based on if you had a hypothetical account of $100,000 dollars?
Take your pick:
1 pip = 1 dollar
1 pip = 2 dollars
1 pip = 10 dollars etc.

Sorry again, I'll have to finish this post later. I'm giving my neighbors beautiful wife a ride to the airport tomorrow morning and I have to wake up early.

zunismyst · Independent Trader

Simon, you were asking

...Just a question ......... what leverage are you at with 35% drawdown?

If you have built the leverage up to +10:1 at that stage, i would be too scared a 300 - 400 pip black swan could come and take the other 65%.

You thoughts and comments as very much appreciated.
thanks
Simon

To have this question answered is just discretionary. It happens that I close a trade even after 20-40 pips drawdown. I have just entered a trade long AUD/USD at 0.94 (see attached chart and green arrow). If I notice that my support line doesn't support my trading thoughts anymore I go out. Right now I have 10 trades running. May be a little too much. But for the moment I have no other choice in doing so. Average leverage of each trade is 2. Draw down is 38.
My goal is still finding a trading balance for a good sleep. And, yes, sometimes I go to bed with a mixed feeling.
I will tell you folks later more about it.

-- Edited by zunismyst at 17:19, 2008-05-13

-- Edited by zunismyst at 17:20, 2008-05-13

-- Edited by zunismyst at 17:25, 2008-05-13

zunismyst · Independent Trader

I am "relatively" sure about this AUD/USD trade. Just to study this chart here (see attached).
Now it depends if pitchork keeps holding

blindfold · MP 06 Life Member

Thanks for sharing with us zunismyst, i am hanging on your every word

I definitely think you are using a lot more technical analysis than i am.

I have certainly had a go at technical analysis, but never really got my feet under the table. I just could never find something that made sense.

I would love to know what you are using on those charts and how it makes sense to you.

Also......... what time frame are thos charts? 4 hour?

Thanks a lot

Simon

DeanR · Class of Life (2007)

Ok I took the same trade at 9400 and even though it's underwater I'm still holding on based on this:

Flow Analysis:
iFlow FX indicators show continuing strong net buying of the AUD as the currency consolidates its recent gains. In contrast, the NZD is witnessing net selling, further weighed on by dismal house sales numbers overnight - as we have pointed out in recent weeks, these diverging flows have led the AUD/NZD cross to climb up to 1.2297 earlier Monday morning, which is the highest since late July

https://gm.bankofny.com/Research/MorningUpdate/Article.aspx?Type=1&ContentManagerID=7277

You say here:

Just to make something clear here about my core concept.

1) I am orientated in longer term trading in nature - identical to BWILC
I can relate.
2) Timing becomes a less important component of my decision entering a trade - identical to BWILC
Big question? If timing is not important, how can you close a trade if it goes against you after 20 to 40 pips?(Because you say here: To have this question answered is just discretionary. It happens that I close a trade even after 20-40 pips drawdown)

But I diversify my portfolio because:

a) it should spread my risk (asset allocation), i.e. price shocks, draw downs of trading One currencyas much as possible.
I've heard this works for many people

b) it opens awareness - looking at a broader range of currency pairs, but just one pair.
I like that idea but it sure must eat up a lot of time.
c) trying to evaluate the best combination of pairs (majors + carry trades)

MmKay, got it.
My tools:
1)my median grid (to be seen in 4H charts), Andrews pitchfork (daily, better weekly). Both, median grid and pitchfork do complement one another perfectly.
2) Fibonacci retracements for entrances and exits.
3) Pivots (H + L + C) / 3

Let me guess. All those indicators you got for free at Forex-TSD.com
I still use the Tom demark indicator.

Ok, your leverage is 2:1. To me that means your banking or losing 2 bucks a pip. (Am I right?) You have currently 10 trades on the board. You're able to compensate for some of your drawdowns by hedging, even if the pair is out of the majors hence your Aud/Jpy trade to recoup your Euro drawdown (Never tried that) At what pip amount do you usually take your profit?

I Know you're a big fundamental trader because I see you on other forums (PFX GLOBAL "Are you long or short USD/Jpy?" and others.

What sources do you subscribe to to gather your Fundamental analysis?

The Aud/usd went against you by more than 40 pips. Did you get out?

How do you factor in for "Black swan events? Do you have stop losses on your trades for that "Just in case moment?"

zunismyst · Independent Trader

Hey folks,
I have a bad feeling. It is no good to change his business plan so abruptly.
OK,

Dean,
at least you should have prepared everything in your AUD/USD chart before you enter any trade.

Just one more information here. No, I am no professional trader yet!

I have an appointment now. But I will answer your questions by tonight.

Here the AUD/USD charts from monthly, weekly, daily to 4H chart. The 4H chart is my trading/main chart. On the 4H chart you see my median grid: red line on 0.9550, green line on 0.9200

-- Edited by zunismyst at 16:11, 2008-05-14

Omar · Class of Life (2007)

hey zunismyst,
at the very first sight your charts reminded me of something I saw long time ago... weirdface

curious how you make it work.... confused

Regards,
Omar.

zunismyst · Independent Trader

Dean,
according to your questions:
2) Timing becomes a less important component of my decision entering a trade - identical to BWILC
Normally even after a trade where I notice, oh, this was kind of stupid, I close this trade shortly after my entry because I don't see any chance that my prior decision doesn't make any sense. This happens once in a while.
Now we have a good example for this: look at the AUD/USD chart. Price broke through my support line. I have entered a long trade on 0.94. And because USD/JPY was right at pitchfork line (I don't trade USD/JPY, but I watch this very important pair as a meter for actions in all other pairs). So, both lines broke yesterday. What to do? Trade ran against me. In my first view I thought was closing it. That intend was in my mind and what I have mentioned in one of my posts yesterday. But in my second view, no, I didn't. As we have a strong resistance line at 0.93 I changed my mind and was quite sure, that we have to get prepared for range trading in the next future (0.9270 - 0.95). But I still leave the old support line as you can see.

a) it should spread my risk (asset allocation)...
I am still working on the right proportioning

b) it opens awareness - looking at a broader range of currency pairs...
If I prepare every chart that seems to be important to me with all necessary tools in advance,
nope! This procedure should be good for another 2 weeks or more.

My tools:
BWILC median grid -
Fibonacci - You find this tool on nearly every good platform (Metatrader, etc.)
Pivots (H + L + C) / 3 - This goes automatic on my platform. It is just a matter of choosing this tool. My platform is from AC Markets http://www.ac-markets.com/trading-software/forex-demo-login.aspx. I have been using this great platform for almost two years, though I don't have a live account with this broker (my broker is Oanda; platform is not good for studying at all).

..Ok, your leverage is 2:1. To me that means your banking or losing 2 bucks a pip...
Let me tell it this way, if my balance shows 10.000 Euros I enter into a single trade with 20.000. My exit (profit) depends just discretionary. Regarding the Aussie I definitely get out
at 0.9473 or 0.9495, it depends (help could be pivots and fundamentals).

..."Are you long or short USD/Jpy?" and others?
I am short on EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY

What sources do you subscribe to to gather your Fundamental analysis?

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/index.html
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/index.html
http://www.2000wave.com/gateway.asp
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/
http://www.dailypfennig.com/
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/

The Aud/usd went against you by more than 40 pips. Did you get out?
No, (see my thoughts above)

How do you factor in for "Black swan events? Do you have stop losses on your trades for that "Just in case moment?"

No, just an emergency brake, that I use manually and close various trades when time tells.

-- Edited by zunismyst at 12:09, 2008-05-15

zunismyst · Independent Trader

Omar,
if you look at all time frames starting from monthly you will get the clues about my insertions.
Of course the 4H chart is somewhat irritating in the first moment I agree with you.
Just one important note here: I leave all support and resistance lines as long as possible. That means, even though if price brakes through that line either to the upside or downside
(see attachments GBP/USD - on monthly chart NL=Neckline).

DeanR · Class of Life (2007)

Torsten,

I can't thank you enough for your time and your generosity on sharing all the hard work you've put into your trading methodolgy. I can't help but recollect all the big ego traders that would post on Moneytec or Forexfactory claiming their methodology was the next best thing to the Holy Grail and it was thier own personal secret. Yet none of them ever won any contests. Off the subject a little, today I was asked a personal question by a co-worker and I got all pissed off. Then it crossed my mind later during lunch, am I doing the same to Torsten by asking him about how he trades? I apologize if I've intruded. I'm actually comfortable at making 10 to 15% a year and have no desire to increase what I make. My fear like everyone elses is that I'm not getting any younger and I worry about preservation of capital. I'll make this post question free.

Thanks again for sharing.

zunismyst · Independent Trader

Dean,
thank you for your open words. Well, it is a pleasure for me to show some details of my work. But you have to keep into account that even if you become aware what I am doing and how I trade You (generally spoken) are necessarily not a good trader. Imagine, what you have read about excellent analysts from more or less famous investment banks. Many of these personalities are not able to trade. They don't make any cent. To analyze and to trade is different.
We here - the BWILC group have a big advance. At least many of us are able to trade profitable within this quite simple methodology. It doesn't depend on how much the one or the other takes home in a year.

Just one correction here:
What sources do you subscribe to to gather your Fundamental analysis?
The second link is double. My choice was:

http://www.agorafinancial.com/5min/

northwoods · MP Class of Jan 2008

zunismyst, very much appreciate you giving a look over your shoulder. Looking at your charts they show many reactionary points that the randomness will seemingly "react"to. I see the pivotpoints, fib levels, channels,diagonal support-resistance via manual drawing and the same via the Andrews Pitchfork. These may look cluttered to some but they disappear into the background of the chart when looked at in the correct perspective of utilizing them to draw a picture of the probable reactionary levels of prices other traders may also see and react to.

BMILC median grid and Relational Analysis absoulutely can not be beat as a stand alone tool method of trading. On my grids I still find myself utilizing some, not all of the same from above. By habit and by my normal reaction when i see a chart it happens and has been helpful. Has aided in banking 398 pips (shorts, B&B) on the tight EURUSD since 5-2-08. BWILC is the main method but I still have a bare bones median grid and another chart with the other on it. It is not for everybody... but works for me.

Thank you again...

Randy

-- Edited by northwoods at 03:44, 2008-05-16

blindfold · MP 06 Life Member

Thanks from me also Zunismyst, it is very interesting to see how other people trade, (especially when the other person is a competition winner).

I have not had enough time to follow up on your posts properly, (i will do some work this weekend).

But i did try a little bit of technical analysis on your advice. Only thing is it still does not make a hell of a lot of sense to me and my charts end up looking like some type of stick figure holocaust.

I do not know how much of your methods i will be able to in-corporate into my own trading as i can really on concentrate on trading between 6pm and 10pm GMT. But i will certainly have a good look at everything you have mentioned.

Thanks very much for your advice.

Regards

Simon

DeanR · Class of Life (2007)

I'm not blessed in math, but if I were to break it down in order to make (to make the math simple using round numbers) 100% in 4 months, I'd have to make more than 1% a day. (Let's say 1% a day) that's 20% a month. So on a hypothetical 100,000 dollar account, you'd have to make 1000 dollars profit a day, every day 5 days a week. This would equal 20,000 dollars profit a month.

1) On this hypothetical 100,000 dollar account, what would be your pip value?1, 2, 3, 4, .....10? (Meaning, if the Euro went up 30 pips, would you have made 30 dollars or 300 dollars?

2) How many trades would you normally close out in order to achieve this $1000 a day profit?
Example> eur/usd=300 (dollars)30 pips profit, usd/chf = 400(dollars)40 pips profit Aud/usd=300(dollars)30 pips profit
or
Aud/Usd = 1000 (dollars) 100 pips profit
All (of course) at 10 dollars a pip
or
Aud/usd=30 pips(dollars) profit, Usd/jpy=70pips(dollars)profit, gbp/jpy=40 pips(dollars)profit and so on and so on all adding up to 1000 dollars profit at the end of the day?

I know you use more (leverage) at lower quads and less (leverage) at higher quads, so this might be a difficult question to answer.

I also read the same sources

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/index.html
http://www.agorafinancial.com/5min/
http://www.2000wave.com/gateway.asp
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/
http://www.dailypfennig.com/
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/

But I'd have to say that these sources really have a lot to do with confirming the long term trend. Really none of these sources suggested you should take the Aud/usd at 9400. None of those sources mention anything about the current Australian economy not like what Commonwealth bank might mention being an Austrailian bank and all. Or the Bank of New York with there iflow analysis. What about news trading (so to speak) are you a big fan of what retails sales (for example) did last week, or do you just concentrate on the main trend and wait for pullbacks?(Maybe even after a news release?)

What about gold and the price of oil and the COT report and TIC data and LIBOR etc.

I'm sorry, When I think how I would answer these questions, even I get confused.

Again, If you feel that any of these questions are too personal or intruding, (DON'T ANSWER THEM) I understand. (BELIEVE ME I DO!)

My next interview will be with none other than Dr. Forex himself

Hopefuly we can go into great detail using a hypothetical account balance of let's say 100, 000 dollars. This way I won't be intruding into his personal life or his personal financial matters. I will only be asking questions like when should we start thinking about range trading verses trading with the trend (One Direction) The Hypothetical account balance is important because we as traders (starting out) need to see numbers,(Hypothetical as they may be) account balances, leverage or pip value (another number) vs account balance (another number) amount of trades on at a given time (another number) days, weeks or months needed for a trade to show a profit (another number) numbers numbers numbers.
Dirk achieved over 100% in a year using very low leverage. I think it has to be broken down on a day to day basis otherwise it's just a big blur (Don't you think?)

zunismyst · Independent Trader

Dean,
if you read Chuck Butler and his http://www.dailypfennig.com/ every day, like I do you will be informed not just about the US economy but also the RBA, and various other countries like Scandinavia, Singapore, China, etc. These informations don't come daily but at least once a week. That's enough for me to have a quite reasonable picture globally. I read the RGE Monitor and I get the whole world's economy very detailed.

For my understanding you mentioned that all your informations come from Dirk Du Toit. Nothing against it. But if your time allows also reading other sources then do it. If you trade just for pleasure then the daily briefing should be enough.

And don't get confused about great performance and long term trading. You can make very good performance within a long term view like Dirk Du Toit.
Just take yesterday, Friday, May 16. Even when it was Chinese time (your time) you were able to fetch some pips if you were still at the screen.

Don't just get agonized too much about performance and how much is possible. First of all get well informed about global fundamentals and don't just concentrate on the one pair you trade.

No misunderstanding here, you should trade just one currency. But for a better understanding of correlation between all currency pairs my personal view has widened tremendously after I figured more and more how things work in Forex. Latter I tried to explain in my prior posts.

-- Edited by zunismyst at 16:40, 2008-05-17

blindfold · MP 06 Life Member

[youtube=http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=5pNlMgH2p-Y&feature=related]

I do quite like the picture of you in your white tux.

zunismyst · Independent Trader

Yes, me too!
But during that time my tuxedo was at a dry cleaner's -
Instead I had to wear my combat casual outfit.

-- Edited by zunismyst at 14:45, 2008-05-19

blindfold · MP 06 Life Member

I have had a bit of a thought from reading what you have posted and i do feel.........

Your secret is not in your use of technical analysis, it is how you are managing your dowside risk.

I refer everyone to one of dirk's old docs Median Trading principles and the sections

Median Trading grid for Novices
Median Trading grid for more experienced
Median Trading grid for advanced
and the sections in between.

I think using the 4 hour charts probably do a lot for how you make decisions to exit losers.

Just a thought.

Otherwise please also see the attached jpg of some classic zunismyst downside risk management.

******
I have removed the attachment as it is mentor content and this is a totally open forum.

-- Edited by DrForex at 23:36, 2008-05-21

If you have been on the mentoring program the removed attachment was 15mediantradingstrategies and part of the second lot of old docs.

I believe Dirk is going to post it in a mentoring forum at sometime, you can see it there.

I think the thought ........ Your secret is not in your use of technical analysis, it is how you are managing your dowside risk...... pretty much spot on, see the doc i am talking about and you will see

And ..... I have kind of had the idea, that you can set you monthly goal to whatever you want and then build your plan around that.

I am going to start targetting 20% per month from now on.

Simon

-- Edited by blindfold at 12:51, 2008-05-22